Forecasts this week by the World Bank revived a prediction often made down the years: that growth in one of the Asian emerging market behemoths, India, would outdo that in the other, China. If this comes to pass, the correct reaction would be: about time too. And while in the medium term it would mainly reflect their relative positions in the economic cycle, sustaining it over a longer period will require Narendra Modi’s government in Delhi to play as good a liberalisation game as it talks.
世界银行(World Bank)最近发表预测，作为亚洲新兴市场大国之一的印度，经济增长率将超越另一新兴市场大国——中国。这是个老掉牙的预测，如果此次得以应验，那么正确的反应大概是：也该到时候了。在中期内，印度增长率超过中国可能主要反映出两国在经济周期中的相对位置，但假如印度想在长期内维持这一地位，就需要纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导下的印度政府在自由化改革中做得跟说得一样好了。
In truth, it is an indictment of India’s policy making over the decades that the thought of its economy outpacing China is a novelty. At a much earlier stage of development — India’s per capita gross domestic product at purchasing-power-parity levels is less than half China’s — the potential for catch-up should be enormous.
事实上，印度经济增速超过中国成为新奇观点，是对印度过去几十年政策制定的控诉。印度所处的发展阶段比中国早得多（按购买力平价计算，印度人均国内生产总值(GDP)是中国的一半），追赶潜力本应是巨大的。Yet India, although it has succeeded in creating world-class software and business services companies, has never achieved the broad-based take-off in manufacturing that has lifted so many Asian countries out of poverty. This can be remedied. There is so much low-hanging fruit for economic reformers to pick in areas such as infrastructure, power supply, excess regulation and corruption that the tree is practically bent down to the ground. But political stasis at the centre, and the fact that much of the reform has to be done at the state level, restricts the ability even of a genuine reformist government to effect radical change.
然而，尽管印度已成功创立了世界一流的软件和商业服务公司，但一直没能在制造业实现广泛起飞，而许多亚洲国家当年都是凭借制造业起飞摆脱了贫困。不过这一点是可以纠正的。在基建、供电、过度监管以及腐败等领域，可供经济改革者摘采的低垂之果那么多，压得整棵大树几乎要趴到地上。中央的政治僵局，以及大多数改革必须在国家层面展开的事实，束缚了政府（哪怕是一个真正想改革的政府）实现彻底变革的能力。
Clearly there is a large cyclical element in India’s current prospects. The monetary policy implemented by Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has been exemplary. Timely increases in interest rates at the end of 2013 swiftly quelled inflation. Accordingly, India’s economy gathered steam last year while many others, such as Turkey and Brazil, had to raise rates sharply in the face of high inflation and weak currencies. This week the RBI judged it had enough headroom to loosen monetary policy.
显然，印度当前的前景中有一个很大的周期性因素。印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)行长拉古拉姆•拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)实施的货币政策堪称典范。2013年末，他及时加息，迅速平息了通胀。因此印度经济才能在去年获得强劲的增长动力，而同时期的土耳其、巴西等许多国家面对高通胀和货币走弱都不得不大幅加息。上周印度央行判断自己有足够的空间放宽货币政策。With the RBI having made its contribution, however, Mr Modi’s government has yet to show it can match it by implementing plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and privatise a succession of companies. The privatisation campaign has run into difficulty, and India seems likely to miss its deficit target of 4.1 per cent of GDP this year without hefty spending cuts.
印度央行已作出了自己的贡献，但莫迪政府在实行削减财政赤字、并私有化一系列企业的计划上，却还没有显示出与前者旗鼓相当的能力。私有化运动遇到了困难，而且如果不大幅削减开支，印度今年看上去很可能实现不了赤字与GDP比例为4.1%的目标。Yet Mr Modi’s liberalisation drive has already encountered fierce opposition from interest groups. A huge strike by coal miners protesting against his plans to deregulate the corrupt and inefficient sector forced the government to agree fresh talks to consider the strikers’ demands. This is a pattern likely to be repeated in industry after industry.
莫迪的自由化运动已遭到利益集团的激烈反对。煤矿工人举行了一次大罢工，抗议他的计划对腐败、低效的煤矿行业放松管制，罢工者迫使政府同意举行新的谈判，考虑他们的诉求。同样的情况可能在一个又一个行业中再现。The enduring gains if Mr Modi succeeds could be huge. India has some long-term advantages over China. First, its demographics are considerably better, with a relatively much larger cohort of young people entering the workforce. Second, while China requires great political upheaval to become a prosperous liberal democracy, India has only to improve the imperfect democracy it already has. Third, China is beginning to exhaust the rapid manufacturing phase of expansion, and may find growth harder to come by in the future.
如果莫迪取得成功，长期利益可能是巨大的。与中国相比，印度有几个长期优势。首先，印度的人口结构比中国要有利得多，即将进入劳动力市场的年轻人相对要多得多。其次，中国尚需要一场政治剧变才能成为一个繁荣的自由民主国家，而印度只需改进已有的不完善的民主制度。第三，中国以制造业快速发展为特点的经济扩张阶段即将走到尽头，未来可能会发现增长更难实现。Predictions of India overtaking China have been disappointed so many times over the decades that it is risky, bordering on foolhardy, to make them once more. Yet by virtue of his sweeping election victory last year and the happy macroeconomic position that India is currently in, Mr Modi has one of the best chances in a long while to fulfil a little more of the country’s vast but unused potential.
过去几十年，印度经济增速超过中国的预言已经落空过如此很多回，使得再一次作此预言成了件冒险的、甚至近乎鲁莽的事。不过，凭借去年在大选中的压倒性胜利，以及印度目前乐观的宏观经济形势，莫迪得到了长久以来的一个最佳机会，可以将印度巨大的、但未得到利用的潜力多发挥出来一些。